Taiwan Strait tensions
China claims Taiwan and has stepped up military pressure, with record air incursions in 2025 and large blockade-style drills in December 2025. There is no fighting; the dispute plays out through drills, incursions and arms sales. U.S. officials assess an invasion before 2028 as unlikely, while Taiwan seeks continued U.S. arms deliveries.
Conflict zones
Click a shape for details and sourcesZones, lines of contact and strike arcs are approximate and illustrative, drawn from public reporting. They are not authoritative; click a shape for its sources. Borders from Natural Earth, with Crimea shown as part of Ukraine in line with UN General Assembly resolution 68/262.
Key facts
Human cost
- 253,678 reportedUNHCR Refugee Data Finder (API, end-2025) as of 31 Dec 2025refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs and others in need of protection from CHN; UNHCR end-2025
Parties and actors
- People's Republic of China / People's Liberation Army State
- Taiwan (Republic of China) Self-governing authorities
- United States Arms supplier and security partner of Taiwan
Parties are listed factually by name and role. Inclusion does not imply any judgement.
Negotiations
Negotiations hubNo negotiation track is currently tracked for this conflict.
Sources and further reading
- UNHCR Refugee Data Finder (API, end-2025) as of 31 Dec 2025
- CSIS ChinaPower (Taiwan MND data) as of 5 Feb 2026
- CSIS ChinaPower as of 5 Feb 2026
- SIPRI Yearbook 2026 as of 8 Jun 2026
- CFR Global Conflict Tracker: Confrontation Over Taiwan as of 2 Oct 2026
- CSIS ChinaPower: China's military activities in 2025 as of 2 Oct 2026