World Conflicts
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Northern Triangle gang violence

Active Medium intensity Intrastate Americas 1 Jan 2014 to present

Gangs such as MS-13 and Barrio 18 and drug-trafficking networks drive violence and extortion in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. El Salvador's mass-arrest policy sharply cut reported homicides, Guatemala imposed a state of siege in January 2026 after gang attacks on police, and Honduras continues to record one of the region's higher homicide rates.

Conflict zones

Click a shape for details and sources

Zones, lines of contact and strike arcs are approximate and illustrative, drawn from public reporting. They are not authoritative; click a shape for its sources. Borders from Natural Earth, with Crimea shown as part of Ukraine in line with UN General Assembly resolution 68/262.

Key facts

Honduras homicides 2025
2,332 (23.2 per 100k)
InSight Crime as of 31 Dec 2025
Guatemala homicide rate 2025
17.4 per 100k
InSight Crime as of 31 Dec 2025
El Salvador official homicides 2025
82 (narrow official definition)
InSight Crime as of 31 Dec 2025
Arrests under El Salvador's state of emergency
72,000+
CFR Global Conflict Tracker as of 25 Sep 2026
Reported fatalities, last 4 weeks (ACLED)
115
ACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026
Deaths in 2026, 1 Mar to 28 Sep 2026 (UCDP)
53 best estimate (48–53)
UCDP GED Candidate 26.0.9 as of 28 Sep 2026

Human cost

Fatalities
Killed in 2026 so far (UCDP)
53
People displaced
2M
  • 2,000,000 estimatedCFR Global Conflict Tracker as of 25 Sep 2026People who have fled or been displaced from the three countries since 2019 ('more than two million'); includes migrants
All forcibly displaced, country-wide (UNHCR)
1.7M
Recorded events, last 30 days
107

Parties and actors

  • Security forces of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador State armed forces and police · aligned with Governments
  • Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) Criminal armed group
  • Barrio 18 Criminal armed group
  • Drug-trafficking networks Criminal groups

Parties are listed factually by name and role. Inclusion does not imply any judgement.

Negotiations

Negotiations hub

No negotiation track is currently tracked for this conflict.

Trend: events and reported fatalities by month

Events per month Reported fatalities per month
0 0 63 63 125 125 188 188 250 250Nov 2021: 128 events, 136 reported fatalitiesDec 2021: 121 events, 136 reported fatalitiesJan 2022: 185 events, 195 reported fatalities2022Feb 2022: 126 events, 134 reported fatalitiesMar 2022: 203 events, 215 reported fatalitiesApr 2022: 151 events, 135 reported fatalitiesMay 2022: 133 events, 130 reported fatalitiesJun 2022: 137 events, 146 reported fatalitiesJul 2022: 162 events, 177 reported fatalitiesAug 2022: 125 events, 130 reported fatalitiesSep 2022: 121 events, 127 reported fatalitiesOct 2022: 140 events, 155 reported fatalitiesNov 2022: 119 events, 110 reported fatalitiesDec 2022: 118 events, 118 reported fatalitiesJan 2023: 99 events, 111 reported fatalities2023Feb 2023: 93 events, 117 reported fatalitiesMar 2023: 105 events, 116 reported fatalitiesApr 2023: 149 events, 136 reported fatalitiesMay 2023: 147 events, 149 reported fatalitiesJun 2023: 181 events, 240 reported fatalitiesJul 2023: 165 events, 144 reported fatalitiesAug 2023: 141 events, 136 reported fatalitiesSep 2023: 189 events, 185 reported fatalitiesOct 2023: 125 events, 128 reported fatalitiesNov 2023: 47 events, 54 reported fatalitiesDec 2023: 65 events, 87 reported fatalitiesJan 2024: 53 events, 56 reported fatalities2024Feb 2024: 48 events, 50 reported fatalitiesMar 2024: 80 events, 90 reported fatalitiesApr 2024: 67 events, 74 reported fatalitiesMay 2024: 59 events, 76 reported fatalitiesJun 2024: 75 events, 93 reported fatalitiesJul 2024: 56 events, 55 reported fatalitiesAug 2024: 72 events, 84 reported fatalitiesSep 2024: 69 events, 90 reported fatalitiesOct 2024: 91 events, 111 reported fatalitiesNov 2024: 74 events, 82 reported fatalitiesDec 2024: 57 events, 50 reported fatalitiesJan 2025: 94 events, 85 reported fatalities2025Feb 2025: 80 events, 89 reported fatalitiesMar 2025: 113 events, 128 reported fatalitiesApr 2025: 87 events, 90 reported fatalitiesMay 2025: 152 events, 154 reported fatalitiesJun 2025: 102 events, 111 reported fatalitiesJul 2025: 113 events, 125 reported fatalitiesAug 2025: 116 events, 105 reported fatalitiesSep 2025: 108 events, 100 reported fatalitiesOct 2025: 103 events, 106 reported fatalitiesNov 2025: 115 events, 123 reported fatalitiesDec 2025: 93 events, 131 reported fatalitiesJan 2026: 123 events, 115 reported fatalities2026Feb 2026: 113 events, 112 reported fatalitiesMar 2026: 80 events, 99 reported fatalitiesApr 2026: 140 events, 152 reported fatalitiesMay 2026: 157 events, 179 reported fatalitiesJun 2026: 121 events, 127 reported fatalitiesJul 2026: 117 events, 150 reported fatalitiesAug 2026: 190 events, 214 reported fatalitiesSep 2026: 162 events, 181 reported fatalitiesOct 2026: 107 events, 115 reported fatalities
reportedACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026 Political violence events only (battles, explosions/remote violence, violence against civilians).
Show data table
MonthEventsFatalities
Oct 2026107115
Sep 2026162181
Aug 2026190214
Jul 2026117150
Jun 2026121127
May 2026157179
Apr 2026140152
Mar 20268099
Feb 2026113112
Jan 2026123115
Dec 202593131
Nov 2025115123
Oct 2025103106
Sep 2025108100
Aug 2025116105
Jul 2025113125
Jun 2025102111
May 2025152154
Apr 20258790
Mar 2025113128
Feb 20258089
Jan 20259485
Dec 20245750
Nov 20247482
Oct 202491111
Sep 20246990
Aug 20247284
Jul 20245655
Jun 20247593
May 20245976
Apr 20246774
Mar 20248090
Feb 20244850
Jan 20245356
Dec 20236587
Nov 20234754
Oct 2023125128
Sep 2023189185
Aug 2023141136
Jul 2023165144
Jun 2023181240
May 2023147149
Apr 2023149136
Mar 2023105116
Feb 202393117
Jan 202399111
Dec 2022118118
Nov 2022119110
Oct 2022140155
Sep 2022121127
Aug 2022125130
Jul 2022162177
Jun 2022137146
May 2022133130
Apr 2022151135
Mar 2022203215
Feb 2022126134
Jan 2022185195
Dec 2021121136
Nov 2021128136

Events by type

Battles Explosions / remote violence Violence against civilians
0 63 125 188 250 20222023202420252026
reportedACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026

Most affected provinces

  1. Guatemala (Guatemala) 546 events · 610 fatalities
  2. Francisco Morazan (Honduras) 180 events · 171 fatalities
  3. Cortes (Honduras) 131 events · 137 fatalities
  4. Yoro (Honduras) 61 events · 95 fatalities
  5. Escuintla (Guatemala) 49 events · 50 fatalities
  6. Atlantida (Honduras) 45 events · 58 fatalities
  7. Olancho (Honduras) 35 events · 42 fatalities
  8. Copan (Honduras) 31 events · 31 fatalities
reportedACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026 Last 12 months, political violence events.

Sources and further reading

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