World Conflicts
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Cabo Delgado insurgency (Mozambique)

Active Medium intensity Internationalized intrastate Africa 5 Oct 2017 to present

An Islamic State-linked insurgency in northern Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, fought by Mozambican forces with several thousand Rwandan troops guarding the LNG zone. TotalEnergies restarted its LNG project in January 2026, yet incidents rose about 10% in the first half of 2026 and militants struck into Niassa province in September.

Conflict zones

Click a shape for details and sources

Zones, lines of contact and strike arcs are approximate and illustrative, drawn from public reporting. They are not authoritative; click a shape for its sources. Borders from Natural Earth, with Crimea shown as part of Ukraine in line with UN General Assembly resolution 68/262.

Key facts

Conflict incidents, H1 2026
400+ (up 10% year on year)
Genocide Watch (citing OCHA) as of 24 Sep 2026
Militant-linked deaths, 12 months to mid-2026
539 (up 58%)
Africa Center for Strategic Studies as of 12 Aug 2026
Rwandan deployment
4,000-5,000 soldiers and police
Democracy in Africa as of 30 Sep 2026
Mozambique LNG restart announced
29 January 2026
Democracy in Africa as of 30 Sep 2026
2026 humanitarian plan funding (Aug)
$227m of $534m (43%)
Genocide Watch (citing OCHA) as of 24 Sep 2026
Reported fatalities, last 4 weeks (ACLED)
18
ACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026
Deaths in 2026, 10 Jan to 30 Sep 2026 (UCDP)
239 best estimate (152–321)
UCDP GED Candidate 26.0.9 as of 30 Sep 2026

Human cost

Fatalities
6.1K–6.6Krange across 2 sources
Killed in 2026 so far (UCDP)
239
People displaced
500K–662Krange across 2 sources
All forcibly displaced, country-wide (UNHCR)
469K
Recorded events, last 30 days
20

Parties and actors

  • Mozambique Defence Armed Forces (FADM) and police State armed forces · aligned with Government
  • Rwanda Defence Force and Rwandan police Foreign state armed forces (bilateral deployment) · aligned with Government
  • Local Force militias Pro-government militia · aligned with Government
  • Islamic State Mozambique Province (Ahl al-Sunna wal-Jama'a) Non-state armed group

Parties are listed factually by name and role. Inclusion does not imply any judgement.

Negotiations

Negotiations hub

No negotiation track is currently tracked for this conflict.

Trend: events and reported fatalities by month

Events per month Reported fatalities per month
0 0 25 50 50 100 75 150 100 200Nov 2021: 52 events, 113 reported fatalitiesDec 2021: 28 events, 60 reported fatalitiesJan 2022: 49 events, 80 reported fatalities2022Feb 2022: 37 events, 88 reported fatalitiesMar 2022: 25 events, 85 reported fatalitiesApr 2022: 22 events, 47 reported fatalitiesMay 2022: 38 events, 60 reported fatalitiesJun 2022: 60 events, 93 reported fatalitiesJul 2022: 42 events, 62 reported fatalitiesAug 2022: 52 events, 48 reported fatalitiesSep 2022: 40 events, 108 reported fatalitiesOct 2022: 40 events, 83 reported fatalitiesNov 2022: 38 events, 99 reported fatalitiesDec 2022: 30 events, 51 reported fatalitiesJan 2023: 23 events, 86 reported fatalities2023Feb 2023: 20 events, 15 reported fatalitiesMar 2023: 13 events, 10 reported fatalitiesApr 2023: 6 events, 17 reported fatalitiesMay 2023: 17 events, 13 reported fatalitiesJun 2023: 10 events, 18 reported fatalitiesJul 2023: 16 events, 27 reported fatalitiesAug 2023: 6 events, 22 reported fatalitiesSep 2023: 21 events, 27 reported fatalitiesOct 2023: 16 events, 5 reported fatalitiesNov 2023: 10 events, 11 reported fatalitiesDec 2023: 20 events, 64 reported fatalitiesJan 2024: 26 events, 36 reported fatalities2024Feb 2024: 27 events, 49 reported fatalitiesMar 2024: 9 events, 22 reported fatalitiesApr 2024: 35 events, 63 reported fatalitiesMay 2024: 25 events, 63 reported fatalitiesJun 2024: 23 events, 20 reported fatalitiesJul 2024: 31 events, 8 reported fatalitiesAug 2024: 20 events, 14 reported fatalitiesSep 2024: 15 events, 25 reported fatalitiesOct 2024: 23 events, 22 reported fatalitiesNov 2024: 39 events, 61 reported fatalitiesDec 2024: 17 events, 22 reported fatalitiesJan 2025: 25 events, 28 reported fatalities2025Feb 2025: 29 events, 49 reported fatalitiesMar 2025: 33 events, 42 reported fatalitiesApr 2025: 21 events, 19 reported fatalitiesMay 2025: 18 events, 59 reported fatalitiesJun 2025: 22 events, 60 reported fatalitiesJul 2025: 28 events, 44 reported fatalitiesAug 2025: 34 events, 46 reported fatalitiesSep 2025: 43 events, 72 reported fatalitiesOct 2025: 33 events, 48 reported fatalitiesNov 2025: 47 events, 133 reported fatalitiesDec 2025: 16 events, 21 reported fatalitiesJan 2026: 23 events, 33 reported fatalities2026Feb 2026: 16 events, 45 reported fatalitiesMar 2026: 7 events, 18 reported fatalitiesApr 2026: 22 events, 21 reported fatalitiesMay 2026: 33 events, 82 reported fatalitiesJun 2026: 18 events, 56 reported fatalitiesJul 2026: 29 events, 39 reported fatalitiesAug 2026: 26 events, 51 reported fatalitiesSep 2026: 29 events, 33 reported fatalitiesOct 2026: 20 events, 18 reported fatalities
reportedACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026 Political violence events only (battles, explosions/remote violence, violence against civilians).
Show data table
MonthEventsFatalities
Oct 20262018
Sep 20262933
Aug 20262651
Jul 20262939
Jun 20261856
May 20263382
Apr 20262221
Mar 2026718
Feb 20261645
Jan 20262333
Dec 20251621
Nov 202547133
Oct 20253348
Sep 20254372
Aug 20253446
Jul 20252844
Jun 20252260
May 20251859
Apr 20252119
Mar 20253342
Feb 20252949
Jan 20252528
Dec 20241722
Nov 20243961
Oct 20242322
Sep 20241525
Aug 20242014
Jul 2024318
Jun 20242320
May 20242563
Apr 20243563
Mar 2024922
Feb 20242749
Jan 20242636
Dec 20232064
Nov 20231011
Oct 2023165
Sep 20232127
Aug 2023622
Jul 20231627
Jun 20231018
May 20231713
Apr 2023617
Mar 20231310
Feb 20232015
Jan 20232386
Dec 20223051
Nov 20223899
Oct 20224083
Sep 202240108
Aug 20225248
Jul 20224262
Jun 20226093
May 20223860
Apr 20222247
Mar 20222585
Feb 20223788
Jan 20224980
Dec 20212860
Nov 202152113

Events by type

Battles Explosions / remote violence Violence against civilians
0 25 50 75 100 20222023202420252026
reportedACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026

Most affected provinces

  1. Cabo Delgado 245 events · 471 fatalities
  2. Nampula 23 events · 59 fatalities
  3. Manica 3 events · 1 fatalities
  4. Maputo 3 events · 2 fatalities
  5. Niassa 3 events · 2 fatalities
  6. Inhambane 2 events · 2 fatalities
  7. Sofala 2 events · 1 fatalities
  8. Tete 2 events · 10 fatalities
reportedACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026 Last 12 months, political violence events.

Sources and further reading

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