World Conflicts
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Ethiopia conflicts (Amhara, Oromia, Tigray)

Active High intensity Intrastate Africa 9 Apr 2023 to present

Federal forces fight Fano militias in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia. In September 2026 the TPLF joined a seven-group alliance including Fano and the OLA seeking to replace the government, Tigrayan forces seized Mekelle airport, and fighting spread into Afar and Amhara, undermining the 2022 Pretoria agreement.

Conflict zones

Click a shape for details and sources

Zones, lines of contact and strike arcs are approximate and illustrative, drawn from public reporting. They are not authoritative; click a shape for its sources. Borders from Natural Earth, with Crimea shown as part of Ukraine in line with UN General Assembly resolution 68/262.

Key facts

Alliance for Survival formed
21 Sep 2026, seven groups
Euronews as of 23 Sep 2026
Mekelle airport seized by Tigrayan forces
23 Sep 2026
Euronews as of 23 Sep 2026
Amhara constituencies without June 2026 vote
At least 8 of 138 (insecurity)
Critical Threats, Africa File May 28, 2026 as of 28 May 2026
Fano attack rate, Mar-May 2026
Up over 50% vs Dec 2025-Feb 2026
Critical Threats, Africa File May 28, 2026 as of 28 May 2026
Reported fatalities, last 4 weeks (ACLED)
753
ACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026
Deaths in 2026, 1 Jan to 1 Oct 2026 (UCDP)
3,423 best estimate (2,867–11,513)
UCDP GED Candidate 26.0.9 as of 1 Oct 2026

Human cost

Fatalities
6K
Killed in 2026 so far (UCDP)
3.4K
  • 3,423 estimatedUCDP GED Candidate 26.0.9 as of 1 Oct 2026UCDP best estimate, events 1 Jan to 1 Oct 2026; low 2,867, high 11,513
People displaced
IDPs, all causes
3.3M
Newly displaced, Sep 2026
150K
All forcibly displaced, country-wide (UNHCR)
2.7M
Recorded events, last 30 days
311

Parties and actors

  • Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) State armed forces · aligned with Federal government (PM Abiy Ahmed)
  • Tigray Peace Force Non-state armed group (pro-government Tigrayan fighters) · aligned with Federal government
  • Amhara Fano National Movement and other Fano groups Non-state armed group · aligned with Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival
  • Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) / Tigray forces Regional ruling party and its armed forces · aligned with Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival
  • Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) Non-state armed group · aligned with Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival

Parties are listed factually by name and role. Inclusion does not imply any judgement.

Negotiations

Negotiations hub
Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (2022) Stalled
Parties
Federal Government of Ethiopia, TPLF
Mediators
African Union, IGAD, UN Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa
Last development
25 Sep 2026

The 2022 deal ending the Tigray war is near collapse after renewed fighting in September 2026. The UN and AU have called for de-escalation and a return to dialogue; no talks were under way.

UN News as of 25 Sep 2026

Trend: events and reported fatalities by month

Events per month Reported fatalities per month
0 0 125 500 250 1K 375 1.5K 500 2KNov 2021: 190 events, 937 reported fatalitiesDec 2021: 113 events, 823 reported fatalitiesJan 2022: 135 events, 470 reported fatalities2022Feb 2022: 71 events, 320 reported fatalitiesMar 2022: 82 events, 244 reported fatalitiesApr 2022: 103 events, 351 reported fatalitiesMay 2022: 66 events, 372 reported fatalitiesJun 2022: 111 events, 1,085 reported fatalitiesJul 2022: 109 events, 1,149 reported fatalitiesAug 2022: 112 events, 522 reported fatalitiesSep 2022: 132 events, 572 reported fatalitiesOct 2022: 150 events, 584 reported fatalitiesNov 2022: 112 events, 455 reported fatalitiesDec 2022: 76 events, 280 reported fatalitiesJan 2023: 96 events, 270 reported fatalities2023Feb 2023: 32 events, 126 reported fatalitiesMar 2023: 46 events, 63 reported fatalitiesApr 2023: 42 events, 69 reported fatalitiesMay 2023: 88 events, 176 reported fatalitiesJun 2023: 79 events, 192 reported fatalitiesJul 2023: 125 events, 361 reported fatalitiesAug 2023: 168 events, 521 reported fatalitiesSep 2023: 206 events, 566 reported fatalitiesOct 2023: 147 events, 480 reported fatalitiesNov 2023: 177 events, 474 reported fatalitiesDec 2023: 182 events, 436 reported fatalitiesJan 2024: 116 events, 409 reported fatalities2024Feb 2024: 216 events, 583 reported fatalitiesMar 2024: 262 events, 742 reported fatalitiesApr 2024: 229 events, 753 reported fatalitiesMay 2024: 195 events, 480 reported fatalitiesJun 2024: 266 events, 741 reported fatalitiesJul 2024: 203 events, 605 reported fatalitiesAug 2024: 286 events, 756 reported fatalitiesSep 2024: 169 events, 471 reported fatalitiesOct 2024: 208 events, 811 reported fatalitiesNov 2024: 264 events, 801 reported fatalitiesDec 2024: 127 events, 334 reported fatalitiesJan 2025: 120 events, 296 reported fatalities2025Feb 2025: 127 events, 233 reported fatalitiesMar 2025: 255 events, 607 reported fatalitiesApr 2025: 133 events, 483 reported fatalitiesMay 2025: 134 events, 420 reported fatalitiesJun 2025: 147 events, 327 reported fatalitiesJul 2025: 134 events, 471 reported fatalitiesAug 2025: 285 events, 752 reported fatalitiesSep 2025: 312 events, 799 reported fatalitiesOct 2025: 216 events, 709 reported fatalitiesNov 2025: 219 events, 754 reported fatalitiesDec 2025: 164 events, 453 reported fatalitiesJan 2026: 183 events, 493 reported fatalities2026Feb 2026: 184 events, 785 reported fatalitiesMar 2026: 143 events, 452 reported fatalitiesApr 2026: 167 events, 561 reported fatalitiesMay 2026: 356 events, 947 reported fatalitiesJun 2026: 190 events, 523 reported fatalitiesJul 2026: 184 events, 523 reported fatalitiesAug 2026: 209 events, 675 reported fatalitiesSep 2026: 264 events, 638 reported fatalitiesOct 2026: 311 events, 753 reported fatalities
reportedACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026 Political violence events only (battles, explosions/remote violence, violence against civilians).
Show data table
MonthEventsFatalities
Oct 2026311753
Sep 2026264638
Aug 2026209675
Jul 2026184523
Jun 2026190523
May 2026356947
Apr 2026167561
Mar 2026143452
Feb 2026184785
Jan 2026183493
Dec 2025164453
Nov 2025219754
Oct 2025216709
Sep 2025312799
Aug 2025285752
Jul 2025134471
Jun 2025147327
May 2025134420
Apr 2025133483
Mar 2025255607
Feb 2025127233
Jan 2025120296
Dec 2024127334
Nov 2024264801
Oct 2024208811
Sep 2024169471
Aug 2024286756
Jul 2024203605
Jun 2024266741
May 2024195480
Apr 2024229753
Mar 2024262742
Feb 2024216583
Jan 2024116409
Dec 2023182436
Nov 2023177474
Oct 2023147480
Sep 2023206566
Aug 2023168521
Jul 2023125361
Jun 202379192
May 202388176
Apr 20234269
Mar 20234663
Feb 202332126
Jan 202396270
Dec 202276280
Nov 2022112455
Oct 2022150584
Sep 2022132572
Aug 2022112522
Jul 20221091,149
Jun 20221111,085
May 202266372
Apr 2022103351
Mar 202282244
Feb 202271320
Jan 2022135470
Dec 2021113823
Nov 2021190937

Events by type

Battles Explosions / remote violence Violence against civilians
0 125 250 375 500 20222023202420252026
reportedACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026

Most affected provinces

  1. Amhara 1,449 events · 4,378 fatalities
  2. Oromia 654 events · 2,177 fatalities
  3. Tigray 240 events · 341 fatalities
  4. South Ethiopia Region 59 events · 108 fatalities
  5. Benshangul/Gumuz 45 events · 230 fatalities
  6. Afar 39 events · 51 fatalities
  7. Central Ethiopia 32 events · 99 fatalities
  8. Gambela 30 events · 143 fatalities
reportedACLED aggregated data, up to week of 24 Oct 2026 as of 24 Oct 2026 Last 12 months, political violence events.

Sources and further reading

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